By Week 11, the bye weeks are over and the playoff picture is becoming clear in your league(s). You are either researching waiver wire sleepers because you a) need someone with upside to win a key Week 11 battle, or b) you are in the playoffs already and are looking down the road to guys who can help you win a championship.
So my goal with this week’s waiver wire sleeper column is to satisfy both searches.
Some of the guys below are excellent Week 11 choices while others are more longer-term type plays. Regardless, I think all of the guys discussed below have the ability to help you better your chances at playoff success – either getting there or winning there – and that’s what it’s all about.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks
There are no teams on bye in Week 11!
Remember, the rules for this post are: a player must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues to be included; and, I focus on players’ value for Week 11, although I’ll recommend players with poor matchups or outlooks if they especially stand out as valuable long-term acquisitions.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: QB
Matt Cassel, Kansas City (v Arizona, 45%)
Brett Favre has been starting football games in the NFL since before many of you were born, and he’s had only two 400-yard passing games. One of them came two weeks ago against the Arizona Cardinals, despite the fact that he was getting hit repeatedly, was still missing Sidney Rice, no longer had Randy Moss, and had a #1 target – Percy Harvin – who was running on a bum ankle.
So…starting the QB facing Arizona is a good idea. The Cardinals give up 250+ passing yards per game and at least a TD pass in every game. Matt Hasselbeck added 333 yards and a TD to the Cardinals pass D ledger in Week 10. Matt Cassel isn’t a great start every week, but he can take advantage of good matchups. And as his 469 yards and 4 TDs in the Chiefs’ Week 10 blowout showed, Cassel has some momentum you can build on.
Vince Young or Kerry Collins, Tennessee (v WAS, 35% and 2%)
It’s never clear from week-to-week which QB will be starting for the Titans. In Week 11, it doesn’t really matter because whoever starts will be throwing against a Washington pass D that is among the most generous in the NFL. With Randy Moss now on the roster, the Titans passing game has the deep threat it lost when Kenny Britt went down. This matchup warrants a start for either QB.
Shaun Hill, Detroit (at Dallas, 20%)
Hill has been very productive as a fill-in for the oft-injured Matthew Stafford this year. The Cowboys pass defense has been among the worst in the NFL in terms of giving up TDs as well as creating turnovers, which they simply do not do (or, at least, they didn’t before Week 10). As long as the Lions have Calvin Johnson, their QB will have value. With Nate Burleson and Brandon Pettigrew also in the mix, this is a passing game that can take advantage of good matchups.
Others to keep your eye on: Troy Smith threw for 300+ yards and a TD last week, and the Tampa Bay defense can be scored upon; Colt McCoy continues to be solid and account for at least one TD per week, so he’s not a bad option if you’re desperate.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: RB
Darren Sproles, San Diego (v DEN, 40%)
I’m well aware that in Sproles’ last game, a seemingly tasty matchup versus Houston, he had only two touches and did nothing with them. I also realize that San Diego should have a healthier WR corps and Antonio Gates back in Week 11. And yes, I know that Darren Sproles is third on the third RB rung in San Diego, behind Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert.
But that matchup against Denver screams out with potential, for no defense in the NFL has been as generous to opposing running backs as the Broncos’ has been. In 7 career games against Denver, Sproles has scored three TDs, and it was just a few weeks ago that three Oakland running backs produced fantasy value against the Broncos. If you’re in a PPR league. Sproles could offer decent value in Week 11.
Jerome Harrison, Philadelphia (v NYG, 11%)
Before you ask me what I’m drinking while I write this (red wine, but that’s beside the point…), understand that I am officially labeling this a SPECULATIVE choice only if you have a “free” roster spot. But don’t forget what happened at the end of last season: Harrison single-handedly carried teams to playoff success with three immaculate final games.
Harrison’s chances of making a late season splash in 2010 rest solely on the health of LeSean McCoy. If McCoy stays healthy, Harrison will be nothing more than a 5-10 touch guy on his best day. However, if McCoy goes down, Harrison immediately becomes a top-15 back. His skill set fits very well into what the Eagles do, and they have late season matchups against Houston (Week 13) and Dallas (Week 14) that would obviously be nice.
Don’t drop anyone you might play for him, but if you’ve been carrying a second kicker or tight end or defense during the bye weeks, why not take a chance on a guy who is one injury away from lots of upside?
Fred Taylor, New England (v Indianapolis, 3%)
If you are desperate for a running back in Week 11 due to injuries or your starters’ ineffectiveness, Fred Taylor is a guy to keep an eye on. First, make sure he’s going to play. Assuming he plays (which he is expected to do), Taylor could do damage against Indy’s poor run D even with limited (8-12) carries.
And understand this: Taylor will get some carries. Bill Belichick rotates his backs and you never know who will be the most productive. It’s frustrating, but also means any New England back has the potential to be valuable if you need a roll of the dice with a potential payoff.
More than Week 11 though, Taylor is a nice speculative pick for the future. He wasn’t lighting it up before getting hurt (0 TDs) but he has upcoming matchups against Detroit (Week 12) and Buffalo (Week 16) that have potential.
Others to keep your eye on: Mike Goodson of Carolina, if he is starting next week; Javarris James scored another touchdown in Week 10, so he has value; Chester Taylor got 14 touches in Week 10;
Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: WR
Robert Meachem, New Orleans (v Seattle, 45%)
Seattle is terrible against the pass, and they have historically been much worse on the road than they are at home. We know that the Saints’ offense functions better on the Superdome surface and in front of their crazy fans, and we also know that Robert Meachem is a second half player. (Don’t believe me? Click here.)
I expect big things out of Meachem, and this is a very good matchup to play him. Future matchups against Dallas (Thanksgiving) and Baltimore (Week 15) are pretty nice as well.
Danny Amendola, St. Louis (v Atlanta, 38%)
Another week, another appearance by Danny Amendola in the sleeper article. Well, until he is owned in over 50% of leagues, I’ll keep putting Amendola here. What’s not to like? He is Sam Bradford’s #1 target, he is near the top of the league in red zone targets (scoring yet another TD in Week 10), and he even adds additional value as a return man.
Specific to Week 11, Atlanta does not have a great pass defense, and both the Rams and their rookie QB are better at home. This is a very nice matchup for Amendola.
Nate Burleson, Detroit (at Dallas, 17%)
This is another guy starting to become a weekly fixture in this article. Considering he has MegaTron opposite him to draw coverage, a QB who looks for him, and a solid matchup against the woeful Cowboys, Burleson makes a nice Week 11 play. Future matchups against New England (Thanksgiving), Tampa Bay (Week 15), and Miami (Week 16) are also enticing.
Other WR names to keep in mind: Nate Washington, TEN (v WAS); Mike Thomas, JAX (v CLE); Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE (at JAX); Jordan Shipley, CIN (v BUF); Earl Bennett, CHI (at MIA).
Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: TE
Benjamin Watson, Cleveland (at Jacksonville, 36%)
Watson has been a bit up and down this year, but he is worth a play by virtue of the matchup versus Jacksonville. Cleveland receivers aren’t often good recommendations, but pass defenses don’t come much worse than the Jags. Unless you have an elite TE, consider Watson.
Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati (v Buffalo, 21%)
You know that my excitement about Gresham has dwindled almost by the week, but Gresham came through with his best game as a pro in Week 10, and tight ends typically do well against the Bills. A tight end with Gresham’s physical gifts certainly has a lot of potential.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: Defense
Miami Dolphins (v Chicago, 37%)
The Dolphins are not a great defense, so Jay Cutler and the Bears could put up some yards and points, but Miami can also rush the passer with Cameron Wake and has playmakers like Vontae Davis in the secondary to pick off errant throws. Any defense has value against the Bears, and the Dolphins have the potential for a solid Thursday night outing.
Detroit Lions (at Dallas, 35%)
The Lions have been surprisingly productive on defense this year from a fantasy perspective. Much of the credit for that goes to Ndamukong Suh. Considering the fact that the Cowboys’ O-Line hasn’t proven it can block consistently, and has INT-machine Jon Kitna at QB, the Lions are a solid play against Dallas.